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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 53

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(10:17) 8-R.Sanchez punts 40 yards to HOU 13, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 14-D.Carter. Punt Hangtime - 4.28s

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.69 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 53, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.55 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP