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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 47

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(3:00) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett scrambles up the middle to HOU 41 for 6 yards (57-B.Scarlett).

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.54 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 47, worth -1.73 EP
KICK -0.26 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model