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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Houston Texans
4th & 3 at the 35
Houston Texans 20 – Indianapolis Colts 17
What Actually Happened
(:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep left.
The Three Options
GO
+0.51 EP
What Happened
-
51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +1.12 EP
- 49% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 35, worth -0.12 EP
KICK
+1.99 EP
Model's Pick
- 69% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
- 31% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 45, worth -0.25 EP
PUNT
+0.04 EP
- Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.48 EP
