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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 81

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(3:24) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to HOU 33, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 14-D.Carter pushed ob at HOU 46 for 13 yards (26-C.Geathers). Punt Hangtime - 4.47s

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.50 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 81, worth -4.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.35 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 38, worth -2.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP