Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 71

Miami Dolphins 3 – Cleveland Browns 28

(14:16) 2-M.Haack punts 53 yards to CLE 18, Center-46-T.Pepper. 25-D.Hilliard to CLE 22 for 4 yards (81-D.Smythe).

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.62 EP
60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 71, worth -4.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model