Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- MIA offense: -0.153 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- CLE offense: -0.132 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
- CLE on 3 more days rest than MIA
- QB edge to MIA: Baker Mayfield (CLE) -0.012 vs Ryan Fitzpatrick (MIA) -0.016 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 12
MIA
CLE
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 22 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:03 TD CLE (10:03) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 80-J.Landry for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – CLE 6
- Q1 01:59 TD CLE (1:59) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 13-O.Beckham for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – CLE 13
- Q2 10:37 TD CLE (10:37) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 80-J.Landry for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-D.Godchaux]. MIA 0 – CLE 20
- Q2 01:06 TD CLE (1:06) 27-K.Hunt right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – CLE 27
- Q2 00:01 FG MIA (:01) 7-J.Sanders 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack. MIA 3 – CLE 28
- Q3 09:42 TD MIA (9:42) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 88-M.Gesicki for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 9 – CLE 28
- Q3 00:10 TD MIA (:10) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick scrambles up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 16 – CLE 28
- Q4 11:25 FG CLE (11:25) 4-A.Seibert 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. MIA 17 – CLE 31
- Q4 06:54 FG CLE (6:54) 4-A.Seibert 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. MIA 17 – CLE 34
- Q4 03:32 TD CLE (3:32) 24-N.Chubb right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 17 – CLE 40
- Q4 00:48 TD MIA (:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left to 17-A.Hurns for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 23 – CLE 41
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 MIA 4th & 17 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24%
(8:50) 2-M.Haack punts 50 yards to CLE 17, Center-46-T.Pepper. 25-D.Hilliard to CLE 23 for 6 yards (42-P.Laird; 35-W.Aikens).
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Q1 MIA 4th & 9 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(4:52) 2-M.Haack punts 41 yards to CLE 40, Center-46-T.Pepper. 30-D.Johnson ran ob at CLE 40 for no gain.
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Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 58Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.49 EPp(convert) 36%
(14:15) (Punt formation) 42-P.Laird up the middle to MIA 45 for 3 yards (44-S.Takitaki; 12-K.Hodge).
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Q3 MIA 4th & 6 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(14:16) 2-M.Haack punts 53 yards to CLE 18, Center-46-T.Pepper. 25-D.Hilliard to CLE 22 for 4 yards (81-D.Smythe).
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Q3 CLE 4th & 16 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 79%
(4:08) 4-A.Seibert 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 88%
(11:25) 4-A.Seibert 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.
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Q4 MIA 4th & 9 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(9:55) 2-M.Haack punts 34 yards to CLE 25, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 25-D.Hilliard.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 7 at the 8Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%
(6:54) 4-A.Seibert 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.