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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 16 at the 27

Cleveland Browns 28 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(4:08) 4-A.Seibert 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.16 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 27, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 37, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model