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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 21

Cleveland Browns 28 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(11:25) 4-A.Seibert 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.96 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 31, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model