4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 59

Miami Dolphins 17 – Cleveland Browns 31

What Actually Happened

(9:55) 2-M.Haack punts 34 yards to CLE 25, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 25-D.Hilliard.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.66 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 59, worth -2.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 18, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model