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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 17 at the 67

Miami Dolphins 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(8:50) 2-M.Haack punts 50 yards to CLE 17, Center-46-T.Pepper. 25-D.Hilliard to CLE 23 for 6 yards (42-P.Laird; 35-W.Aikens).

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.49 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 67, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 25, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model