Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 64

New York Giants 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(14:55) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 55 yards to CHI 9, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 29-T.Cohen ran ob at CHI 13 for 4 yards (17-C.Core). PENALTY on CHI-45-J.Iyiegbuniwe, Illegal Blindside Block, 5 yards, enforced at CHI 10.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.93 EP
64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 64, worth -3.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model