Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- NYG offense: -0.129 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- CHI offense: -0.089 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
- Daniel Jones (NYG): -0.118 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- CHI defense: -0.088 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- NYG on 7 more days rest than CHI
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 12
NYG
CHI
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 07:43 TD NYG (7:43) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 82-K.Smith for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – CHI 0
- Q2 00:11 FG CHI (:11) (Field Goal formation) 15-E.Pineiro 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. NYG 7 – CHI 3
- Q3 12:19 TD CHI (12:19) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep middle to 12-A.Robinson for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 7 – CHI 9
- Q3 07:12 FG CHI (7:12) (Field Goal formation) 15-E.Pineiro 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. NYG 7 – CHI 13
- Q3 05:23 TD CHI (5:23) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 7 – CHI 19
- Q4 04:17 TD NYG (4:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 15-G.Tate for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-K.Mack]. NYG 13 – CHI 19
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 NYG 4th & 10 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 30%
(12:57) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to CHI 8, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.
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Q1 CHI 4th & 2 at the 84Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EPp(convert) 62%
(11:38) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to NYG 39, Center-48-P.Scales. 15-G.Tate to NYG 44 for 5 yards (27-S.McManis). PENALTY on NYG-39-E.Penny, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 39.
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Q1 NYG 4th & 3 at the 53Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EPp(convert) 49% p(FG) 18%
(8:40) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to CHI 9, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.
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Q2 NYG 4th & 7 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(14:55) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 55 yards to CHI 9, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 29-T.Cohen ran ob at CHI 13 for 4 yards (17-C.Core). PENALTY on CHI-45-J.Iyiegbuniwe, Illegal Blindside Block, 5 yards, enforced at CHI 10.
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Q2 CHI 4th & 18 at the 92Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(11:11) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to NYG 46, Center-48-P.Scales. 15-G.Tate to CHI 42 for 12 yards (48-P.Scales).
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Q2 CHI 4th & 17 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(6:54) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to NYG 31, Center-48-P.Scales. 21-J.Peppers to CHI 29 for 40 yards (84-C.Patterson; 55-J.Woods). CHI-27-S.McManis was injured during the play. He is Out.
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Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 24Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 84%
(5:50) (Field Goal formation) 2-A.Rosas 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
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Q2 CHI 4th & 7 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(4:25) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 13 yards to CHI 48, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.
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Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 83%
(2:00) (Field Goal formation) 2-A.Rosas 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
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Q2 CHI 4th & 5 at the 8Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 97%
(:11) (Field Goal formation) 15-E.Pineiro 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
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Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51%
(10:01) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 62 yards to CHI 6, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-30-A.Hamilton.
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Q3 CHI 4th & 6 at the 6Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%
(7:12) (Field Goal formation) 15-E.Pineiro 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
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Q3 NYG 4th & 9 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(3:47) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 57 yards to CHI 24, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.
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Q4 NYG 4th & 4 at the 44Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 37%
(13:04) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 87-S.Shepard to CHI 43 for 1 yard (21-H.Clinton-Dix).
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Q4 CHI 4th & 7 at the 37Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EPp(convert) 35% p(FG) 56%
(9:13) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 34 yards to NYG 3, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-84-C.Patterson.
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Q4 NYG 4th & 18 at the 23 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.11 EPp(convert) 20% p(FG) 86%
(4:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 15-G.Tate for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-K.Mack].
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Q4 CHI 4th & 2 at the 67 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EPp(convert) 60%
(3:48) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 61 yards to NYG 6, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-26-D.Bush.
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Q4 NYG 4th & 4 at the 88 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.46 EPp(convert) 49%
(2:55) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 86-D.Slayton to NYG 29 for 17 yards (20-P.Amukamara).
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Q4 NYG 4th & 4 at the 65 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(1:50) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 86-D.Slayton (20-P.Amukamara) [94-L.Floyd].