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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 24

New York Giants 7 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(5:50) (Field Goal formation) 2-A.Rosas 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.47 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 34, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model