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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 25

New York Giants 7 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Field Goal formation) 2-A.Rosas 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.44 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 35, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model