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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 8

Chicago Bears 0 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(:11) (Field Goal formation) 15-E.Pineiro 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +4.45 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 8, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.02 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model