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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 68

New York Giants 7 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(10:01) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 62 yards to CHI 6, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-30-A.Hamilton.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 68, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 26, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model