Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 81

New York Giants 7 – Chicago Bears 19

(3:47) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 57 yards to CHI 24, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.78 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.13 EP
65% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 81, worth -4.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model