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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 37

Chicago Bears 19 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(9:13) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 34 yards to NYG 3, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-84-C.Patterson.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.79 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 37, worth -1.78 EP
KICK -0.11 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 46, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP