Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 88

New York Giants 14 – Chicago Bears 19

(2:55) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 86-D.Slayton to NYG 29 for 17 yards (20-P.Amukamara).

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP

What Happened

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +1.24 EP
51% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 88, worth -3.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.46 EP