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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 65

New York Giants 14 – Chicago Bears 19

What Actually Happened

(1:50) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 86-D.Slayton (20-P.Amukamara) [94-L.Floyd].

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.68 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 65, worth -1.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 23, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model