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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 15 at the 17

New York Jets 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(3:16) 9-S.Ficken 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.28 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 17, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 27, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model