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OAK Away

Oakland Raiders

HC Jon Gruden
@
NYJ Home

New York Jets

HC Adam Gase
Sunday 2019-11-24 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

OAK
64.6%
NYJ
35.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.225 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • LV offense: +0.102 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • QB edge to LV: Sam Darnold (NYJ) -0.030 vs Derek Carr (LV) +0.164 EPA/dropback
  • LV defense: +0.115 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

OAK 25
–
NYJ 19
Projected margin: OAK by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

OAK

David Sharpe T Out Calf
Lamarcus Joyner S Questionable Hamstring

NYJ

C.J. Mosley LB Out Groin
Matthias Farley S Doubtful Quadricep
Darryl Roberts CB Doubtful Calf
Paul Worrilow LB Doubtful Quadricep
Henry Anderson DE Questionable Shoulder
Kelvin Beachum T Questionable Ankle
Brandon Copeland LB Questionable Hip
Chuma Edoga T Questionable Ankle
Neville Hewitt LB Questionable Neck
Alex Lewis G Questionable Elbow
Steve McLendon DT Questionable Neck
Demaryius Thomas WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

OAK 3
–
NYJ 34

Prediction missed by 37 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:00 FG LV (10:00) 8-D.Carlson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. OAK 3 – NYJ 0
  • Q1 05:05 FG NYJ (5:05) 9-S.Ficken 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. OAK 3 – NYJ 3
  • Q2 10:48 TD NYJ (10:48) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 3 – NYJ 9
  • Q2 03:16 FG NYJ (3:16) 9-S.Ficken 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. OAK 3 – NYJ 13
  • Q3 13:05 TD NYJ (13:05) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 84-R.Griffin for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 3 – NYJ 19
  • Q3 06:44 TD NYJ (6:44) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 11-Ro.Anderson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 3 – NYJ 26
  • Q3 06:32 TD NYJ (6:32) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left intended for 16-T.Williams INTERCEPTED by 34-B.Poole (46-N.Hewitt) at LV 15. 34-B.Poole for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 3 – NYJ 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 8 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 76%

    (10:00) 8-D.Carlson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

    (5:05) 9-S.Ficken 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 13 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (3:10) 6-A.Cole punts 57 yards to NYJ 4, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-31-I.Johnson.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 2 at the 25
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 83%

    (7:17) 8-D.Carlson 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 92%

    (3:16) 9-S.Ficken 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 9 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (2:00) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to NYJ 34, Center-47-T.Sieg. 10-B.Berrios pushed ob at LV 40 for 26 yards (6-A.Cole). PENALTY on LV-6-A.Cole, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LV 40.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 74%

    (:44) 9-S.Ficken 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 3 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (:15) 6-A.Cole punts 41 yards to NYJ 14, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-31-I.Johnson.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (8:49) 45-A.Ingold up the middle to LV 39 for no gain (20-M.Maye; 31-B.Austin). Oakland challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 08:40.)

  • Q3 LV 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (3:26) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to NYJ 15, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (2:00) 4-L.Edwards punts 59 yards to LV 23, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-T.Davis to LV 34 for 11 yards (37-M.Canady).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 2 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (14:19) 6-A.Cole punts 32 yards to NYJ 22, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 19 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (13:25) 4-L.Edwards punts 45 yards to LV 42, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 11 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 27%

    (11:39) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 48%

    (6:30) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 5 at the 65 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (3:34) (Punt formation) 6-A.Cole punts 49 yards to NYJ 16, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 78 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:11) 4-L.Edwards punts 46 yards to LV 32, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-T.Davis to LV 35 for 3 yards (17-V.Smith; 37-M.Canady).