Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 78

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to NYJ 34, Center-47-T.Sieg. 10-B.Berrios pushed ob at LV 40 for 26 yards (6-A.Cole). PENALTY on LV-6-A.Cole, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LV 40.

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.15 EP
61% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 78, worth -4.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model