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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 55

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(:15) 6-A.Cole punts 41 yards to NYJ 14, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-31-I.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.16 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 55, worth -1.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 16, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model