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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 19 at the 87

New York Jets 34 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(13:25) 4-L.Edwards punts 45 yards to LV 42, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -3.25 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.68 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 87, worth -4.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 45, worth -1.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model