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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 6

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(7:16) 5-J.Myers 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.43 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 6, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model