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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2019-11-24 · 13:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US 🌧 Rain Spread -1.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

SEA
48.9%
PHI
51.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA offense: +0.044 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.090 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • SEA on 6 more days rest than PHI
  • PHI offense: -0.050 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • Russell Wilson (SEA): +0.156 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Wind 17 mph

Predicted Final Score

SEA 21
–
PHI 22
Projected margin: PHI by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

SEA

Luke Willson TE Doubtful Hamstring
Jadeveon Clowney DE Questionable Knee
Neiko Thorpe CB Questionable Groin

PHI

Rudy Ford S Out Abdomen
Lane Johnson T Out Concussion
Nelson Agholor WR Questionable Knee
Jordan Howard RB Questionable Shoulder
Alshon Jeffery WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 17
–
PHI 9

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:31 FG PHI (7:31) 4-J.Elliott 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. SEA 0 – PHI 3
  • Q1 06:03 TD SEA (6:03) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 17-M.Turner for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – PHI 3
  • Q2 07:16 FG SEA (7:16) 5-J.Myers 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 10 – PHI 3
  • Q4 12:06 TD SEA (12:06) (Shotgun) 20-R.Penny up the middle for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 16 – PHI 3
  • Q4 00:23 TD PHI (:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 17 – PHI 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:33) 1-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to SEA 16, Center-45-R.Lovato. 83-D.Moore to SEA 22 for 6 yards (49-A.Singleton).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 16 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (11:58) 4-M.Dickson punts 27 yards to SEA 43, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 9 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%

    (7:31) 4-J.Elliott 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 11 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 26%

    (2:06) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to PHI 1, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-28-U.Amadi.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (7:16) 5-J.Myers 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (5:11) 1-C.Johnston punts 37 yards to SEA 40, Center-45-R.Lovato. 83-D.Moore pushed ob at SEA 42 for 2 yards (39-C.James).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 13 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:03) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to PHI 15, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 84-G.Ward.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (1:56) 1-C.Johnston punts 37 yards to SEA 43, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 10 at the 38
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 50%

    (1:01) 4-M.Dickson punts 25 yards to PHI 13, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 84-G.Ward.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 11 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (11:40) 4-M.Dickson punts 42 yards to PHI 18, Center-69-T.Ott. 84-G.Ward to PHI 15 for -3 yards (57-C.Barton). SEA-44-N.Bellore was injured during the play.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 14 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:18) 1-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to SEA 10, Center-45-R.Lovato. 83-D.Moore to SEA 22 for 12 yards (45-R.Lovato). PENALTY on SEA-42-D.Hill, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 22.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 2 at the 23
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 85%

    (7:54) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to 19-J.Arcega-Whiteside (26-Sq.Griffin).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 19 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 47%

    (5:13) 4-M.Dickson punts 37 yards to PHI 2, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-28-U.Amadi.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 5 at the 50 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 20%

    (2:29) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.