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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 13 at the 61

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(3:03) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to PHI 15, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 84-G.Ward.

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.43 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 61, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 20, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model