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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 38

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 4-M.Dickson punts 25 yards to PHI 13, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 84-G.Ward.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.77 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 38, worth -1.64 EP
KICK -0.11 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 47, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model