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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 60

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(11:40) 4-M.Dickson punts 42 yards to PHI 18, Center-69-T.Ott. 84-G.Ward to PHI 15 for -3 yards (57-C.Barton). SEA-44-N.Bellore was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.77 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 60, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 19, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model