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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 55

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(11:55) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 40 yards to BUF 15, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.96 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 55, worth -2.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 16, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model