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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
@
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Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
Thursday 2019-11-28 · 16:30 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

BUF
33.5%
DAL
66.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Dak Prescott (DAL): +0.273 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DAL offense: +0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.126 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

BUF 23
–
DAL 27
Projected margin: DAL by 4 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

BUF

Ty Nsekhe T Out Ankle
Robert Foster WR Questionable Hamstring
Mitch Morse C Questionable Hand

DAL

Leighton Vander Esch LB Out Neck
Antwaun Woods DT Out Knee
Jeff Heath S Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 26
–
DAL 15

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:39 TD DAL (10:39) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 82-J.Witten for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – DAL 6
  • Q2 08:09 TD BUF (8:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-C.Beasley for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – DAL 7
  • Q2 02:00 TD BUF (2:00) 15-J.Brown pass deep right to 26-D.Singletary for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Double reverse. BUF 13 – DAL 7
  • Q3 10:52 FG BUF (10:52) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. Field goal kick deflected off the right upright before crossing over the crossing bar. BUF 16 – DAL 7
  • Q3 03:45 TD BUF (3:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 22 – DAL 7
  • Q4 08:24 FG BUF (8:24) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. BUF 26 – DAL 7
  • Q4 04:06 TD DAL (4:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 83-V.Bryant for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 26 – DAL 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (7:31) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 58 yards to DAL 5, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 6 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 50%

    (5:20) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 41 yards to BUF 2, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-83-V.Bryant.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 11 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 44%

    (1:07) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 35 yards to DAL 10, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 81
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (15:00) 4-D.Prescott right guard to DAL 21 for 2 yards (93-T.Murphy). Quarterback keeper

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 6 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (11:55) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 40 yards to BUF 15, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 13 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 75%

    (4:30) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 1 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 79%

    (2:17) 17-J.Allen FUMBLES (Aborted) at DAL 31, and recovers at DAL 31. 17-J.Allen to DAL 28 for 3 yards (31-B.Jones).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 13 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 88%

    (10:52) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. Field goal kick deflected off the right upright before crossing over the crossing bar.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 11 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 81%

    (7:42) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 21-E.Elliott.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (8:24) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 22
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 90%

    (5:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at BUF 29 for -7 yards (93-T.Murphy). FUMBLES (93-T.Murphy), touched at BUF 32, recovered by DAL-77-T.Smith at BUF 33. 77-T.Smith to BUF 33 for no gain (93-T.Murphy).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 6 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (5:36) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 33 yards to DAL 30, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 33 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 73%

    (2:00) 17-J.Allen up the middle to DAL 32 for 1 yard (54-J.Smith; 23-D.Thompson).