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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 29

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Buffalo Bills 16

What Actually Happened

(7:42) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.97 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 29, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.54 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 39, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT +0.55 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model