Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 63

Buffalo Bills 26 – Dallas Cowboys 7

(5:36) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 33 yards to DAL 30, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.25 EP
58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 63, worth -3.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model