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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 63

Buffalo Bills 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(7:31) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 58 yards to DAL 5, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.65 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 63, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 21, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model