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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 11 at the 45

Buffalo Bills 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(1:07) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 35 yards to DAL 10, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.46 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 45, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -0.93 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model