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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 29

Green Bay Packers 14 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(12:07) 2-M.Crosby 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.10 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 29, worth -2.17 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.05 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 39, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -1.03 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model