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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
@
NYG Home

New York Giants

HC Pat Shurmur
Sunday 2019-12-01 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread -6.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

GB
66.1%
NYG
33.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.126 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • NYG offense: -0.170 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to GB: Daniel Jones (NYG) -0.145 vs Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.142 EPA/dropback
  • GB defense: +0.140 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

GB 25
–
NYG 19
Projected margin: GB by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

GB

Will Redmond S Questionable Foot
Tony Brown CB Questionable Heel
Bryan Bulaga T Questionable Knee

NYG

Zak DeOssie LS Out Knee
Rhett Ellison TE Out Concussion
Evan Engram TE Out Foot
Jabrill Peppers S Out Back
Golden Tate WR Out Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 31
–
NYG 13

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:49 TD GB (8:49) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-D.Adams for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – NYG 0
  • Q1 03:23 TD NYG (3:23) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 87-S.Shepard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-Z.Smith]. GB 7 – NYG 6
  • Q1 01:23 TD GB (1:23) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 13-A.Lazard for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – NYG 7
  • Q2 12:07 FG GB (12:07) 2-M.Crosby 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. GB 17 – NYG 7
  • Q2 02:35 FG NYG (2:35) 2-A.Rosas 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-C.Holba, Holder-9-R.Dixon. GB 17 – NYG 10
  • Q3 06:42 FG NYG (6:42) 2-A.Rosas 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-C.Holba, Holder-9-R.Dixon. GB 17 – NYG 13
  • Q4 14:29 TD GB (14:29) (No Huddle) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 17-D.Adams for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYG, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined. GB 23 – NYG 13
  • Q4 07:11 TD GB (7:11) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 89-M.Lewis for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 30 – NYG 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 4 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (12:51) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to GB 25, Center-69-C.Holba. 27-T.Smith to GB 28 for 3 yards (48-J.Tauaefa). FUMBLES (48-J.Tauaefa), ball out of bounds at GB 28.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 5 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 68%

    (5:31) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 86-D.Slayton to GB 25 for 8 yards (50-B.Martinez, 38-T.Williams).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 8 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 76%

    (12:07) 2-M.Crosby 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 23%

    (9:11) 8-D.Jones up the middle to GB 49 for 2 yards (50-B.Martinez).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 2 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 47%

    (6:25) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones right tackle to GB 39 for 2 yards (91-P.Smith, 94-D.Lowry).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (2:35) 2-A.Rosas 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-C.Holba, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 5 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (:48) 6-J.Scott punts 47 yards to NYG 11, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 18-D.Scott.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 13 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (12:02) 6-J.Scott punts 47 yards to NYG 9, Center-43-H.Bradley. 18-D.Scott to NYG 21 for 12 yards (45-D.Vitale, 30-J.Williams).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 10 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 80%

    (6:42) 2-A.Rosas 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-C.Holba, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 10 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 63%

    (4:24) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 81-G.Allison to NYG 20 for 15 yards (34-G.Haley) [44-M.Golden].

  • Q4 GB 4th & 7 at the 52 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 21%

    (4:29) 6-J.Scott punts 46 yards to NYG 6, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 4 at the 17 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 92%

    (2:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 87-S.Shepard (39-C.Sullivan).