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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
New York Giants
4th & 1 at the 51
New York Giants 7 – Green Bay Packers 17
What Actually Happened
(9:11) 8-D.Jones up the middle to GB 49 for 2 yards (50-B.Martinez).
The Three Options
GO
+1.39 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.19 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.52 EP
KICK
-1.44 EP
- 23% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
- 77% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT
-0.05 EP
- Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.05 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
