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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 9

New York Giants 7 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(2:35) 2-A.Rosas 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-C.Holba, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.77 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 9, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model