Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 58

Green Bay Packers 17 – New York Giants 10

(:48) 6-J.Scott punts 47 yards to NYG 11, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 18-D.Scott.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.32 EP
53% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 58, worth -2.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model