Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 13 at the 56

Green Bay Packers 17 – New York Giants 10

(12:02) 6-J.Scott punts 47 yards to NYG 9, Center-43-H.Bradley. 18-D.Scott to NYG 21 for 12 yards (45-D.Vitale, 30-J.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.10 EP
69% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 56, worth -3.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model