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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 27

New York Giants 10 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(6:42) 2-A.Rosas 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-C.Holba, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.01 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model