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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 33

New York Giants 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:31) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 86-D.Slayton to GB 25 for 8 yards (50-B.Martinez, 38-T.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.45 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 33, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.72 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT +0.65 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model