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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 13

Denver Broncos 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:36) 8-B.McManus 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +2.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.09 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP