4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
LAC Away

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Anthony Lynn
@
DEN Home

Denver Broncos

HC Vic Fangio
Sunday 2019-12-01 · 16:25 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread -4.5 O/U 39.0

Win Probability

LAC
54.9%
DEN
45.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: -0.128 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Drew Lock (DEN): -0.099 EPA/dropback in prior starts (DEN starting Drew Lock in place of Brandon Allen)
  • DEN defense: -0.078 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • LAC on 6 more days rest than DEN
  • Philip Rivers (LAC): +0.083 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

LAC 24
–
DEN 20
Projected margin: LAC by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

LAC

Russell Okung T Questionable Groin
Geremy Davis WR Questionable Hamstring
Sam Tevi T Questionable Knee

DEN

Ja'Wuan James T Questionable Knee
Duke Dawson CB Questionable Concussion
Shelby Harris DE Questionable Ankle
Josey Jewell LB Questionable Ankle
A.J. Johnson LB Questionable Knee
Von Miller LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 20
–
DEN 23

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:40 TD DEN (4:40) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass deep right to 14-C.Sutton for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – DEN 6
  • Q1 00:21 TD DEN (:21) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – DEN 13
  • Q2 09:31 FG LAC (9:31) 4-M.Badgley 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long. LAC 3 – DEN 14
  • Q2 05:36 FG DEN (5:36) 8-B.McManus 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. LAC 3 – DEN 17
  • Q2 00:38 TD LAC (:38) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 30-A.Ekeler for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 9 – DEN 17
  • Q4 12:28 TD LAC (12:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 13-K.Allen for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 16 – DEN 17
  • Q4 04:31 FG DEN (4:31) 8-B.McManus 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. LAC 17 – DEN 20
  • Q4 00:19 FG LAC (:19) 4-M.Badgley 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long. LAC 20 – DEN 20
  • Q4 00:03 FG DEN (:03) 8-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. LAC 20 – DEN 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (13:38) 6-C.Wadman punts 38 yards to LAC 28, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 35-T.Pope.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 9 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:37) 1-T.Long punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-45-C.Mazza, Touchback.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 6 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 96%

    (9:31) 4-M.Badgley 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (7:54) 6-C.Wadman punts 53 yards to LAC 17, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 35-T.Pope MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by DEN-47-J.Jewell at LAC 21.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 2 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 95%

    (5:36) 8-B.McManus 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 3 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (2:32) 1-T.Long punts 32 yards to DEN 22, Center-45-C.Mazza, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (1:05) 6-C.Wadman punts 51 yards to LAC 23, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-43-J.Jones.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 18 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 55%

    (10:26) 1-T.Long punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-45-C.Mazza, Touchback.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 4 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (6:50) 6-C.Wadman punts 39 yards to LAC 15, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 35-T.Pope.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 14 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:06) 1-T.Long punts 53 yards to DEN 14, Center-45-C.Mazza, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 7 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (15:00) 6-C.Wadman punts 45 yards to LAC 38, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 35-T.Pope.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 9 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 60%

    (9:20) 4-M.Badgley 55 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 12 at the 34 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 67%

    (4:31) 8-B.McManus 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 11 at the 76 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:22) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 81-M.Williams to DEN 38 for 38 yards (26-I.Yiadom).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 29 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 78%

    (:19) 4-M.Badgley 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.