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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 54

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(2:32) 1-T.Long punts 32 yards to DEN 22, Center-45-C.Mazza, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.36 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 54, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 16, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP