4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 83

Denver Broncos 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 6-C.Wadman punts 45 yards to LAC 38, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 35-T.Pope.

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.97 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 41, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model