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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 37

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(9:20) 4-M.Badgley 55 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.17 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 37, worth -1.79 EP
KICK +0.07 EP
What Happened
  • 60% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 46, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model