4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 29

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(:19) 4-M.Badgley 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +1.65 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 29, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.89 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 39, worth -0.42 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model